Columbia real estate

The last time I mentioned home price information in the greater Columbia area, I was fairly pessimistic in assessing the April '08 MLS data:

Prices
Apr 07 - 08 change in real estate prices: +5%
2007YTD - 2008YTD (as of 4/08) change: +1.4%
Sales
Apr 07 - 08 change in real estate sales (units sold): -16%
2007YTD - 2008YTD (as of 4/08) change in units sold: -12.9%

Wow, how the times have changed:

Prices
Sep 07 - 08 change in real estate prices: -8.8%
3Q 2007 - 3Q 2008 change: -3.4%
2007YTD - 2008YTD (as of 9/08) change: +0.0%
Sales
Sep 07 - 08 change in real estate sales (units sold): -8.4%
3Q 2007 - 3Q 2008 change: -17.4%
2007YTD - 2008YTD (as of 9/08) change: -17.1%

Quite a change in the rate (deceleration) from April.

Inflation during the period 9/07 - 9/08 was +4.94% so subtract that further from prices.

CNN reports that the national avg drop of 4.8% in comparing year over year prices is the worst in history. Columbia is obviously a little above that.

Given the economic indicators, things don't look good for a reduction in lending rates and the recession will put a serious crimp in people's plans to upgrade or buy for the first time. Short full nationalization of Fannie and Freddie, the housing market will continue to deteriorate for the next 6 months for sure. Call me a bear, but I wouldn't be in the market for a home for at least a year.