Saturday, January 12

Gloom and doom

Want some free advice from a professor of economics?
  • US recession and global economic slowdown in 2008
  • Central banks are behind the curve and Fed easing will not prevent a US recession
  • Severe financial losses (over $1 trillion) and systemic risk forthe financial system
  • Recoupling of the rest of the world with a global economic slowdown
  • Cash is king: avoid a variety of risky assets
  • Further sharp and persistent re-pricing of risk
  • The credit boom/bubble party is over!
Nouriel Roubini was among the first to see the oncoming recession, and both he and Krugman, another economist whose prescience is well-documented, are bearish and in general agreement that house prices have a long way left to fall. For our part, Amber and I will be waiting to buy...

I wonder, if the worst-case-scenario plays out, how stable our jobs will be. We work at a high-end private school, and generally speaking, upper crust incomes are affected least by recessions, so hopefully our school would face no issues of solvency as the demand would remain high for a slot at Hammond.

Friday, January 4

Barack's approach to progress works

Krugman and others have been concerned that Barack's plan for change is too naive and compromising. It seems they have some reality to deal with.

Thanks for the economic train-wreck, GOP

This is what we have to reap after 7 years of sowing "greed gone wild" laissez-faire economics:


From Chris at Americablog:
The greenback bounced on lows not seen since the Nixon years (the trend continues in 2008), the price of gas both per barrel and at the pump hit new highs, discrepancy between rich and poor increased, health care costs jumped yet again and housing collapsed to lows last witnessed under Bush I. As we enter 2008, the first day of trading on Wall Street was the worst in 25 years. On the same day, gold hit an all time high and oil crossed the critical $100 per barrel mark.
Does anyone trust Bush to fix this? Yeah, me neither.

My prediction: the DJIA will hit its lowest level since a year ago -- around 12,000. Of course, I'm no economist...but this guy is, and he sees big trouble ahead. Now it's Krugman's turn to chime in. If you want to vote on facebook on the state of the economy, click here.

This guy thinks there is a speculation bubble in alternative energy markets. He lays out more here. All I can say is, "I hope not," because I really want to see solar/wind/nuclear take off and soar.

38-30-29

Well, that went well. [PS: This breakdown is astounding -- Barack won across nearly every category, from gender to education level to income to party ID to ideology...]

I like what Mark Kleiman said:
Unfortunately, although Obama's edge over Edwards and Clinton was nearly as big as Huckabee's over Romney, some media outlets are sticking to the "close race" narrative that came out of the entrance polls. (And wasn't even accurate about them; Obama had as big an edge there as he did in the final count.)
And Steven Teles:
Obama won Iowa, very convincingly. In fact, had the race been run a few weeks later, he probably would have won even more, given his strength with college-age voters...

For those reasons, I think that, while some of the Republican noise machine will be directed against Obama--to believe otherwise is folly--it will be hard for conservatives to gin up quite the same fervor against Obama that they could against HRC. Republican voters won't have quite the same fire in the belly to turn out to vote and encourage their friends to do so. I now believe that the Republican vote in the general election, if Obama wins, will be considerably depressed (both because of Obama, because of the lack of a consensus candidate on the Republican side, and because of continued conservative distaste for how Republicans have governed)...

Finally, I think that Hillary and Edwards need to think very carefully before unloading with both barrels against Obama over the next few weeks, in an effort to get themselves back in the running. The Democrats just can't afford to damage their likely nominee via friendly fire. If they can get back in the game by playing this fairly straight, fine. But the importance (both for the Democrats, and as I have argued before, for the Republicans, over the long run, as well) to get the Republicans out of the White House is just too great to risk damaging the party's nominee. Party leaders should begin to make this clear, as soon as they can.
Amen to that.

As I've said, I think Obama's ethics reform, transparency and integrity in government actions are one of my greatest motivators to vote for him. More on that at the bottom. Also, I just think that Hillary faces a serious challenge with
her consistently high negatives, (55% unfavorability in Rasmussen Reports) in getting GOP crossovers and independents; Republican voters are most comfortable with Obama, and he thus faces no such problem. The "electability" card, then, makes more sense with him than with her...

Here's other stuff I've written re Obama and my support for him since a year ago.

From Obama's "fact check" site:
FACT: OBAMA HAS MADE A HABIT OF DISCLOSING MORE THAN IS REQUIRED, INCLUDING HIS BUNDLERS, EARMARKS, TAX RETURNS AND LEGAL CLIENTS...

Obama Committed to Disclose the Names of Bundlers. In 2007, Obama committed to name people who bundle campaign contributions. [Los Angeles Times, 2/9/07]

Obama Went One Step Further Than Other Candidates, Disclosed The Amount Of Money That His Bundlers Were Raising. "Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on Tuesday disclosed the amounts his very top fund-raisers -- called bundlers -- are pulling in for his presidential campaign...Obama is disclosing more information than chief rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) is willing to reveal about the amounts her top players are raising." [Chicago Sun-Times, 11/14/07]

Public Citizen: Obama's Bundling List "Would Rank The Best." "In terms of just breaking out the amounts raised by superbundlers, compared with the other candidates, Obama's list 'would rank the best,' said Taylor Lincoln, research director for Public Citizen, a watchdog group tracking big dollar campaign fund-raising." [Chicago Sun-Times, 11/14/07]

Obama Was the Only Presidential Candidate to Release His Income Tax Returns. The AP reported, "In addition to filing financial disclosures, another common practice in presidential campaigns is the release of income tax returns. But so far this year, only Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has released his 2006 tax returns." [AP, 5/15/07; ABCNews, 5/15/07]

Obama Reported All Clients On PFD, Providing More Disclosure Than Required. In 1998, the Chicago Sun-Times reported on lawmakers who did not disclose their firms' client. The Sun-Times wrote, "The state form does not require that information, and he refused to provide it to the center, citing attorney-client privilege. Other attorney-lawmakers, such as Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago), reported a full list of clients. 'My assumption is whenever there is a potential conflict of interest, my constituents have a right to know,' Obama told the Sun-Times." [Chicago Sun-Times, 3/29/98]

2007: Obama Disclosed His Earmark Requests. On June 21, 2007, Obama disclosed the earmark projects that he had requested for fiscal year 2008. [Obama Release, 6/21/07]

Chicago Sun-Times: Applaud Obama And Others For "The Courage To Disclose Every Earmark Request." The Chicago Sun-Times wrote in an editorial, "As valuable as it has already been to see the earmarks and their sponsors at the subcommittee stage, it's even more valuable to see the requests from members before they even make it that far. That's why we applaud Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, Democratic Rep. Rahm Emanuel and GOP Representatives Peter Roskam, Judy Biggert and Mark Kirk for having the courage to disclose every earmark request, whether successful or not. The sooner the public can start scrutinizing the earmarks -- which are, after all, demands for taxpayers to fund specific projects -- the sooner it can start separating the wheat from the chaff. We encourage every member of Congress to do the same. The more glare, the more scrutiny, the better the process will work." [Chicago Sun-Times, 6/27/07]

...AND WOULD BE THE DEMOCRAT MOST COMMITED TO TRANSPARENCY

Reason Foundation: Obama The Only Democrat Who Signed The Oath Of Presidential Transparency. The Reason Foundation wrote, "Meet the only three would-be chief execs who will dare to tell you how the government spends your money...The Oath of Presidential Transparency, a project spearheaded by the Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes the print and online editions of reason. Joining together three dozen diverse groups ranging from the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons to the Electronic Frontier Foundation to the voter-rights outfit Velvet Revolution, the Oath provides voters with a crystal-clear understanding of the candidates' priorities when it comes to government spending...'Every American has the right to know how the government spends their tax dollars, but for too long that information has been largely hidden from public view,' says Sen. Obama, whose role in creating FFAT can't be overstated. 'This historic law will lift the veil of secrecy in Washington and ensure that our government is transparent and accountable to the American people. And I will be proud to fully implement and enforce this law as president.'" [Reason Foundation, 8/24/07]

Sunlight Foundation: Obama Was A Leader On Government Transparency, Willingness To Talk About The Issue Demonstrated Commitment. Ellen Miller wrote on her Sunlight Foundation blog, "Given the fact that Obama is a leader on government transparency issues in the Senate now, his willingness to talk about these issues demonstrates his commitment to them and his understanding that the public strongly favors more transparency by the government." [Ellen Miller, Sunlight Foundation, 6/26/07]

Public Citizen: Obama Would Be The Most Active Advocate For Good Government. TPM Election Central reported, "Craig Holman, the ethics lobbyist for Public Citizen, tells us the group endorses all the principles in Obama's speech. 'These are all things we've been advocating for several years now,' he says. 'Obama has been working on many of these reforms for the last year.' Asked if this meant Obama was really better than the other Dems on good-government issues, Holman said: 'Certainly in terms of his active roles. I would expect many of the Democratic candidates to endorse similar proposals. But Senator Obama has been actively working on these since even before he considered running for President.'" [TPM Election Central, 6/22/07]

After the seemingly-endless corruption and scandal fatigue of the past 7 years, this is what America needs (and wants).

Thursday, January 3

Cohen is a dumbass

Somebody get a professional to start writing for the papers again. Please.

Keep in mind that Cohen is slashing at Obama for being disingenuous, all the while he himself is wrong.

(re: Cohen's awful column)

Also:
John Edwards has that great line about the Democratic field being an “embarrassment of riches” and the GOP field just plain being an embarrassment.
I like it.

PS: I'm still a little worried about Obama sometimes, but I really like him on so many issues of ethics and reform, and I so very much want to end the dynasty-oligarchy Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton meme, that I'm willing to overlook some of his centrist nonsense. This stuff will definitely bring him in more Independents & GOPs, but he has to be careful.

Wednesday, January 2

Ron Paul: being a creationist wasn't bad enough

Finding out that Ron Paul is a creationist is not nearly so morally repulsive as his neo-confederate rhetoric on MTP.

They'll love him for it here in Jesusland, of course.

DA denies affair, confirms idiocy

Do you believe him?
E-mails from Rosenthal to his secretary, Kerry Stevens, surfaced last month as part of a federal civil rights lawsuit against the Harris County Sheriff's Office.

None of the e-mails are explicit, but they contain the phrase "I love you" more than a dozen times, and Rosenthal asks Stevens to let him hold her.

Rosenthal has said he is not having an affair with Stevens. He said he had an affair with her in the 1980s when he was married to his first wife, but said the relationship did not lead to his divorce. Rosenthal said he told his current wife about the affair before hiring Stevens when he took office in 2000.
...me neither.